Derby List Last 200 Messages

[David Robinson via Derby]

Dear All

Here are my thoughts on the European horses running on Saturday.

TURF SPRINT

Glass Slippers - Has top class Euro sprinting form that is nigh on impossible to pick holes in.  Her best runs are two seconds, once to Bataash, who is the best sprinter in Europe, and last time out at Longchamp where she was poorly drawn.  Europeans have an absolutely woeful record in this race, despite the various venues and distances.  The filly is well drawn and, with a decent break, she can hit the board.  Use in exactas and Tris.

FILLY & MARE TURF

Peaceful - Complete clunker last time out and possibly flattered by third in French Oaks. Toss.

Terrebelum - Has been running over a mile, but does get further.  Put simply, a return her form at Royal Ascot behind Circus Maximus makes her a very real contender, despite the fact that Sal, Big Al and me all agree on this.  Win bet.

Audarya - An improving filly, but I'm not convinced that the race setup is good for her.  Wide draw, recent preference for racing prominently over a slightly longer makes me think that she will be either be a sitting duck for closers (if racing prominently) or running on too late (if rated).  Toss.

Cayenne Pepper - Admirably consistent without winning at G1 level. Wide draw and perceived preference for a longer trip make me sceptical.  Toss.

MILE

Circus Maximus - On early season form he would be a lock to hit the board.  However, his last three runs have been disappointing, with his last race at Ascot on bottomless ground being a complete clunker.  From this draw he has to go forward, where I fear he will be a sitting duck of the rest of the field.  Toss.

Kameko - Wow, we have the winners of the both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas in the field, which is great.  Kameko has won both of the races he has run over the straight mile at Newmarket this season.  The Newmarket mile is stiff, but it has to be noted that last year he won his G1 over a straight mile on the poly at Newcastle, which I would argue is the stiffest mile in the country.  So, maybe he is not built to tippy toe around the mile at Keeneland.  I would also argue that his lack of tactical speed was behind his defeat at Goodwood.  You have to include him in bets, but at cramped odds and with every chance that he will be stuck behind a wall of horses at the back of the field at the quarter pole.  Hmm.

Lope Y Fernandes - Outclassed.  Toss.

Siskin - Excellent two-yr-old and brilliant winner of the Irish 2000 Guineas.  He quickened really well on (unusually) firm turf that day and was immediately my long-range pick for this race.  Only seen on the track twice since then, with both runs being very disappointing.  This suggests training problems.  Furthermore, Kahlid Abdullah has decided to retire him after this race which, to me, seems very fishy.  Toss.

Safe Voyage - Admirably consistent, but lacks the class or form at a mile for this.  Toss.

One Master - The first horse to win the Foret (7F) on Arc weekend three times.  0-6 at a mile.  Love this mare, but instant toss.

TURF

Magical - A worthy chalkie that you already know about. A reproduction of her form at Churchill should be good enough to win here, but at cramped odds.  If I were betting, I would oppose her on the basis that she is the chalk and her last run at Ascot, which was on bottomless ground, may have taken the edge off her.  However, I could not advise you to do this.

Tarnawa - Rapidly improving filly with recent G1 wins at 1M2F and 1M4F, but unlike on Saturday, against her own sex.  May go off at a reasonable price if Magical takes all the money.  My selection to win the race.

Mehdaayih - Scintillating win at Chester last year, then form fell off a cliff.  Toss.

Donjah - I have no idea what this horse is doing in this race.  Completely outclassed, Toss.

Lord North - Won at Royal Ascot in devastating style and a reproduction of that form would mean that he wins here.  However, missed the Eclipse soon after, had two months off and clunked at York, then another two months off and super-clunked at Ascot. Also, he has no form at 1M4F. Toss.

Mogul - Deserted by Ryan Moore.  O'Brien thinks that he has the speed to win this race, but his previous entries do not support this theory.  He was highly touted by Coolmore supporters, only to disappoint in both the Epsom and Irish derbies (1M4F).  Obviously, this horse with so much speed would then be dropped back in trip to 1M2F?  Er, no.  He then ran in two more 1M4F races which are recognised trials for the St Leger which is run over 1M6F.  The run in the St Leger was aborted, so instead they ran him on the Covid delayed Grand Prix De Paris which was run in September (not July) and over 1M4F (not 1M2F) which effectively made it a trail for the Arc.  He would have been second favourite for the Arc but was one of O'Brien's withdrawn horses that weekend due to the possible contaminated feed issue.  I fully expect him to be near last down the back straight and to be running on wide and late.  Include in exactas and tris, but not to win.

Good luck to all

Dave









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