Derby List Last 200 Messages

[David Robinson via Derby]

Dear All

For what it's worth, as I won't be betting the BC this year, here are my thoughts on the European horses running on Friday.

A GENERAL POINT

Could the Euro 2-yr-olds be more competitive due to the banning of Lasix?  Just a thought.

JUVE TURF SPRINT

Mighty Gurkha - His two wins have come on Poly.  Horrible draw and likely to get behind early, which will seal his fate.  Toss.

Lipizzaner - Lacks both class and pace.  Toss.

Ubettabelieveit - Will not have the pace of the US sprinters.  Does have 3 wins from 5 races, including the Flying Childers, which in a normal year should be won by one of our fastest 2-yr-olds.  If you do want to use a Euro, then include this one in exactas and tris.

JUVE TURF

Sealiway - Recent Longchamp win is devalued by the withdrawal of the O'Brien chalkie (all of O'Brien's intended runners that weekend were withdrawn due to the possibility that their feed was contaminated).  I suspect that he lacks the speed and class to feature here. Toss.

New Mandate - Very much the "wise guy horse" of the whole BC meet amongst the UK media.  Has an improving profile having won under Frankie the last two runs.  Will get behind early, but will be running late. Include, although I expect the morning line of 12/1 to be very optimistic indeed.

Cadillac - Very difficult to weigh up.  On the one hand, ran very disappointingly last time out at Newmarket.  However, in its previous two starts it beat Van Gogh (G1 winner in France since) and was second to Mac Swinney (G1 winner in the UK since).  On balance, I think that it may lack the acceleration to feature here.  Toss.

Battleground - Impossible to fault on breeding or form.  However, why the layoff since July? Include, but keep your ears open for any information regarding works and/or the layoff.

Go Athletico - Had an improving profile, but then went to Chantilly (why not back to Longchamp?) and got beat.  Will be running late, but lacks the class to figure here.  Toss.

Devilwala - Form is regressive. Toss.

The Lir Jet - Royal Ascot winner, but form is regressive since then.  Toss.

JUVE FILLIES TURF

Oodnadatta - Lacks the pace to win here.  Toss.

Miss Amulet - Distance and class are both concerns, but an interesting runner for a number of reasons.  Firstly, she is owned by Michael Tabor's wife.  Secondly, she was ridden last time out by Ryan Moore who is likely to have given connections a frank assessment of her chances rather than telling them what they wanted to hear.  Finally, by Euro standards, she has the pace to get a position at the first turn with the bonus of having an American based jockey up.  I don't think she can win, but I could see her hit the board.  Include in exactas and tris.

Nazuna - Looks to lack the class for this race, but may improve for the distance.  Interesting that the Varian husband and wife team should decide to pay such a high entry fee given the obvious lack of form to justify running here.  Not an instant toss, but a toss nonetheless.

Mother Earth - Recent third at Newmarket is good enough to get involved here, but maybe not to win.  By Euro standards she has a lot of racing experience, which is a plus.  Include in exactas and tris.

Good luck to all

Dave


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