Derby List Last 200 Messages

[David Robinson via Derby]

Dear All

For what it's worth, as I won't be betting the BC this year again (US opens to UK visitors on 8 Nov), here are my thoughts on the European horses running on Friday.

JUVE TURF SPRINT

Twilight Jet - Battle hardened having run ten times as a two-yr-old. Three disappointing runs on good to firm.  Has to go early from the one hole and will be a spent force in the lane.  Toss.
.
Go Bears Go - The form of his Ascot second over 5F on g/f would give him a chance, but his last three runs have all been disappointing.  Toss.

Virtiginous - Official rating is 10lbs below the two Euros drawn on her inside, and this is reflected in the morning line. However, a literal interpretation of her 3L fourth to Zain Claudette at York offers some encouragement.  If you have to use a Euro underneath at a price, use this one.

Heirarchy - Has only ever run over 6F and impossible to make a case for this horse.  Toss.

Armor - Highest rated Euro.  Sent off the chalk at Deauville and Doncaster and beaten both times.  Disappointing run last time at Newmarket and looks on the downgrade.  Toss.

R Thunder Love - Lowest rated Euro and very poor form in last three runs.  Toss.

JUVE FILLIES TURF

Cachet - Good third in 1M G1 at Newmarket last time out.  However, no win in last six races is discouraging.  Toss.

Hello You - Won a 7F G2 at Newmarket last time out in a quick time.  1M at Del Mar on firm turf should suit.  Good draw and John Velazquez are bonuses.  Bet to win.

Malavath - Has only ever run over 6F and last two winning runs were on soft turf.  Impossible to make a case for this horse.  Toss.

Mise En Scene - A bit unlucky last time out at Newmarket and before that had Hello You well behind her at Goodwood.  However, the draw is horrible.  Lightly raced and possible some improvement still to come. Use her underneath.


JUVE TURF

Modern Games - Races prominently and has won both starts where he encountered good to firm turf.  Impressive in Newmarket G3 on good to firm last time. Has to be used early and Buick will probably get him into a good position at the first turn.  Include in all bets.

Albahr - Gelded after two runs, unbeaten in three runs since.  Handles good to firm turf.  Dam was useful, has produced four foals, all have won.  Raced prominently in races until being successfully rated in Canada, although that was a weak race for a G1. Dettori up.  Unlike Modern Games, may not be completely compromised if getting behind early, although he will need a dream run.  Looks the value, bet to win.

Great Max - Although rated only 5lbs behind Modern Games, has not won in four runs since winning his maiden back in June.  Toss.

Glounthaune - Obviously highly regarded by Coolmore as he ran in the Dewhurst (the top two-yr-old race in Europe) at Newmarket after only one run in Ireland. Returned to form in a 7F G3 in Ireland next time.  Despite his sprinting sire, looks like he might benefit from being upped in trip.  However, likely to get behind early and lack of experience might count against him. Use him underneath.

Dubawi Legend - The top-rated Euro draws 14.  Yikes!  Lightly raced and finished second in the Dewhurst.  Races prominently and, with this draw, must be used early.  Will be spent in the lane.  Toss.

Good luck to all

Dave



_______________________________________________
Derby mailing list
Posting: Derby at lists.derbylist.com
Sub/Unsub: http://lists.derbylist.com/listinfo.cgi/derby-derbylist.com