Derby List Last 200 Messages

[Brad Yazell via Derby]

David,

Thank you for these comments. Truly insightful.

Brad


On 11/3/2021 6:56 AM, David Robinson via Derby wrote:
> Dear All
>
> Here are my thoughts on the European horses running on Saturday.
>
> TURF SPRINT
>
> Glass Slippers - 5F at Del Mar is not 51/2F at Keeneland.  Has pretty obviously been aimed at this race this year.  Last run at Longchamp was very respectable given the horrible ground and poor draw.   Will probably get a nice tow into the race from Golden Pal and should be doing her best work at the end.  Use underneath but not for the win.
>
> Emaraaty Ana - Represents the best European form at 5F given his 2nd in the G1 Nunthorpe at York.  Has the speed to follow Golden Pal into the race and the resolution to hang around when the pace collapses.  With the good draw he can win, but he will be vulnerable to a US sprinter kicking into top gear late on.  Small win bet, but an obvious include in exactas and tris.
>
> A Case of You - Won a 5F G1 in bog from very favourable draw at Longchamp last time out.  Previous form is uninspiring.  Instant toss.
>
> FILLY & MARE TURF
>
> Acanella - Sole race of interest was win in a G3 over 1M1F at the Curragh.  I'm guessing that they think that the extra distance and fast ground is going to manufacture a miracle.  Instant toss.
>
> Rougir - 13 runs and has never encountered ground better than good.  Last time out won G1 over 1M2F in a bog at Longchamp.  Flattered by that result.  Instant toss.
>
> Queen Supreme - Ex South African horse with one outing at Newmarket where she finished last.  Instant toss.
>
> Love - A mortal lock on last year's form, anything but on this year's.  Strict interpretation of the form gives her the beating of Audarya (Ascot) and the rest of the field (York).  However, there remains the nagging doubt that she is on the downgrade.  Include in all bets, but not for the win.
>
> BONUS OBSERVATION - Euromoron San speaks:
> Loves Only You - The undisputed Wise Guy horse of the BC.  If she wins, expect red (sun) boarding of the highest quality from the "I told you so" crowd.  That 1/2L defeat behind Mishriff means she should be the clear chalk.  But that was on the wide-open spaces and long straight at Meydan, not the tight turns at Del Mar.  That one thing she has going for her is that firm turf in Japan is FIRM.  Let's put it this way, if Flavien Prat was up, I'd recommend a win bet.  However, he isn't and I can see her hitting a lot of traffic.  Include in exactas and tris.
>
> Ocean Road - Has obviously had problems having run poorly in the Epsom Oaks and then had a prolonged layoff before a pleasing reappearance at Newmarket.  Does not have the class for this race.  However, the dam has previously produced a successful globetrotter called Wigmore Hall who was suited by the most exaggerated waiting tactics.  Horrible hunch bet, I know, but use underneath for pennies and pray for those boxcars.
>
> Audarya - If you hear people saying that she is not as good as last year, just ignore them.  Should have won at Longchamp last time out, but jockey waited too long to kick in the lane and she got run out of the places on heavy ground.  I'm not fazed by the outside draw, but I am a little worried that firm ground at Keeneland is not firm ground at Del Mar.  Include in all bets, but be conservative on the win side.
>
> MILE
>
> Master Of The Seas - Second in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket before a setback.  Tenderly ridden in reappearance at Newmarket before disappointing in a bog at Ascot.  Has the same rating as Space Blues but is (currently) four times to price.  Bet to win.
>
> Space Blues - Charlie Appleby says this is his best chance at the BC.  He is wrong.  The road to ruin in the BC Mile is to bet 7F Prix de la Foret winners in the Mile.  Only Goldikova has done it (once) and Space Blues is no match for that mare.  If he goes forward, he'll be spent in the lane, if he rates, he'll be out kicked.  In a war between the best trainer in England and the Euromoron, there can be only one winner, me.  Instant toss.
>
> Mother Earth - Has had a long hard season (eight consecutive G1s) since winning the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. However, she was second at Keeneland last year on her seventh run as a 2-yr-old.  If she retains her form, she hits the board.  Include in exactas and tris.
>
> Pearls Galore - Oh no, the Foret again! Instant toss.
>
> R Real Appeal - Improving with every run, but never raced against this class of horse.  Instant toss.
>
> R Queen Supreme - Ex South African horse with one outing at Newmarket where she finished last.  Instant toss.
>
> TURF
>
> Walton Street - Too slow.  Instant toss.
>
> Broome - Held in such high regard by Coolmore, they sold him to the Japanese.  Instant toss.
>
> Sisfahan - Don't be fooled by that second to the Arc winner. Too Slow.  Instant Toss.
>
> Yibir - Too slow, but has proved that he can get it done in the US, albeit at Belmont, which is nothing like Del Mar.  I like his attitude and he will be running on at the end.  Use underneath.
>
> Teona - That beating of Snowfall at Longchamp takes the eye, but she has never encountered the ground, track or class of field like this.  Instant toss.
>
> Tarnawa - Make no mistake, she towers over this field.  No matter what you hear, this field is not deep.  The other Euros are second rate and there is no Bricks and Mortar representing the US.  The only way she can be beat is if her effort in the Arc has taken more out of her than we think.  Crushes this field.
>
> R Japan - Aiden says he was "chopped" once at Saratoga and twice at Belmont.  Let me translate that into English.  It means "lacks tactical speed".  Having said this, if he gets a run, he is better than all the euros other than Tarnawa and should be included in exactas and tris.
>
> R Bolshoi Ballet - Form is deteriorating.  Instant toss.
>
> R Mogul - Form has gone off a cliff.  Instant toss.
>
> Good luck to all
>
> Dave
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